21 January, 2009

Oscar Nomination Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow, so here are my predictions. I hope I'm not too wildly wrong...so embarrassing!

I'm just doing the main categories, because who cares about editing and stuff?

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight

Benjamin Button, Slumdog and Frost/Nixon are shoe-ins, in my opinion. I'm surprised at myself for including The Dark Knight, because it's soooo not an Oscar Film, but it has such a lot of buzz at the moment, mostly due to Heath Ledger, and partly due to it being voted one of the best movies ever made on the ImDb (which, as we know, is flawless and not at all full of 13-year-old fanboys). At any rate, people want the Academy to wake and nominate a good movie by a great director, without caring if it's superhero and action-orientated. This is the year to show that they're not old and stuffy and boring. (Um, riiiight). My last pick, Milk, is the most vulnerable, because it got no Golden Globe love, and it just hasn't seemed to have as much buzz around the movie, only around the acting. If it falls out, the Academy could either go:

*The safe route (Revolutionary Road)
*The Clint Eastwood Love route (Gran Torino)
*The Animated-movie-that-could route (Wall-E) [HOW awesome would this be????]

Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

There is nearly always a discrepancy between Best Picture and Best Director, and I don't think this year will be an exception. I may be taking a huge chance here, but I think the Academy are going to snub Christopher Nolan for directing, and bring in the Eastwood love here. An organisation that snubs Baz Luhrmann for directing Moulin Rouge! is capable of anything. If I'm wrong, either Eastwood or Van Sant falls out, and Nolan takes the spot.

Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

That Richard Jenkins has a LOT of little nominations and things going on, and there is no one else big to shut him out, except perhaps Clint Eastwood. But I somehow doubt they're going to nominate him for acting yet again (by the way, I still haven't got over him taking what should rightfully have been Jim Carrey's spot in 2004). I think the other four are givens. Leonardo DiCaprio seems pretty much out of it, BUT if Revolutionary Road sneaks into best picture, he might sneak in here. Doubtful, though.

Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Angelina Jolie (The Changeling)

This is the hardest category to call, in my opinion, because the last two spots could go to just about anybody. Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are definites, but I'm by no means convinced that the other two will be Melissa Leo and Angelina Jolie. Leo is fighting the fact that, while she's won a bunch of lesser-known awards, she wasn't nominated for a Globe, and Angelina is fighting the Brangelina image, and the fact that apparently she's not fantastic in this movie, AND the fact that she was snubbed for A Mighty Heart last year. Cate Blanchett could sneak in here for Benjamin Button (no complaints here), and let's not discount Sally Hawkins from Happy-go-Lucky, although Golden Globe comedy winners only ever get Oscar nods if their film is nominated, which hers certainly won't be. Yet another possible sneaker-in could be Kristen Scott Thomas for I've Loved you So Long (I mean, come on, it's in French! The Academy loves that.) Tough one.

Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder)

I'm going out on a huge limb here by including Robert Downey Jr. If this was a lead performance, there is no way in hell he would be nominated, but it's the sort of role they do give supporting nominations to (though he won't, of course, win, even if it wasn't for the Ledger factor). Slumdog seems poised to take the big awards, so they HAVE to nominate a cast member, hence Dev Patel, and Josh Brolin seems to be getting some good buzz on his role in Milk. James Franco could still sweep in, and I really don't want to discount Michael Sheen for Frost/Nixon, just because he was so spectacularly snubbed for The Queen two years ago.

Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

I think Amy Adams could easily fall out here and be replaced by Taraji P. Henson from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. And IF the Academy decides they worship and adore Slumdog Millionaire, Freida Pinto could sneak in here too. Winslet and Cruz are certainties, and I think Viola Davis is pretty safe too. I just don't think the Academy will want to give four acting nominations to a movie not even nominated for Best Picture (Doubt), and Amy Adams might bear the brunt of that.

Burn After Reading
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Rachel Getting Married


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight

When in doubt, throw in the Best Picture nominees, and add other films with acting nominations....divide up into Original and Adapted, and ta-da! You have nominees.

Who wants to prove me wrong?


  1. Wow, have you seen all these flicks? One of my resolutions is to get back to my passion for film and watch more! I haven't seen ANY of the movies here and didn't pay attention to the Globes beyond the fashion... What a terrible ex-drama student I am!

  2. No, because film release timing SUCKS here in SA! The only films that I even mentioned that I've seen are The Dark Knight, Wall-E, Burn After Reading and Tropic Thunder. The rest is all me going on intuition and buzz! However, I WILL see everything that is released before the actual ceremony, so that my winner predictions can be based on my own opinion and "buzz" combined! I'm really keen for Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married....and I'll suck it up and watch Milk and Frost/Nixon. Political films kinda bore me.

  3. Love your predictions.


    I cant wait to see some of the movies - i havent seen them all yet.

  4. Ps - Hope Wall-E wins something - such a great animated film

  5. Being Brazen - I adore Wall-E! I really want it to get something, even though i don't think it will :-( I always look forward to Oscar time when I am presented with a bunch of movies that I just have to see so I don't feel left out.

  6. Hmmm...I never would have thought of Robert Downey Jr. for the simple fact that it was a comedy and I feel the Oscars never really goes for comedies. Maybe I'm wrong? He did an amazing/hilarious job in the movie, so certainly deserved. I'm interested in seeing how your predictions play out!

  7. Mr RS thinks I'm mad too. But there aren't that many really strong supporting actors this year, and SOMETIMES they sneak in a comedy role for supporting. I'm taking a shot here, but I won't exactly be surprised if he doesn't get in.


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